Seeley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

605
FXUS65 KPSR 191730
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1030 AM MST Thu Jun 19 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect across south-central
Arizona through tomorrow as lower desert high temperatures range
from 108 to 116 degrees.

- Very dry and increasing breezy conditions will lead to elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions across higher terrain areas
of south-central Arizona on Friday and Saturday.

- A cooling trend over the weekend will result in near normal
temperatures Saturday and slightly below normal temperatures
starting Sunday and lasting through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis show
high pressure just east of our area with an abundance of dry air
overhead. High pressure will continue to build over our region
today, with the center of the high pressure straddling the AZ-NM
state line. The high pressure will max out this afternoon, around
592-594 dm, before weakening tomorrow. With the high pressure at its
max this afternoon, today will be the hottest day of the week. The
NBM gives Phoenix a 20-30% chance of at least tying the daily record
high temperature of 118 degrees set in 2016 and 2017. With the high
pressure weakening tomorrow, temperatures are forecasted to be 3-6
degrees cooler than today, which is still several degrees above
normal. For today, widespread Major HeatRisk exits across south-
central AZ with widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the western
portion of the CWA. With cooling temperatures tomorrow, the HeatRisk
will decrease to widespread Moderate across the entire CWA, with
some pockets of Minor HeatRisk. Although HeatRisk will decrease
tomorrow along with afternoon high temperatures, morning lows will
still be on the warmer side with lows ranging from the mid-70s to
mid-80s. Therefore, the Extreme Heat Warning remains in place across
south-central Arizona through tomorrow. Much of the population will
be susceptible to the extreme temperatures, especially this
afternoon, so make sure to limit your time outdoors (especially
between 10am and 6pm) and make sure to drink plenty of water.

The pattern will begin to shift tomorrow as the high pressure starts
to weaken, as mentioned above. This weekend the high pressure will
continue to weaken and negative height anomalies move into the
region from the NW, associated with a strong, anomalous Pacific
trough amplifying over western CONUS. Very dry conditions (minRH`s
of 5-10% on Friday and 10-15% on Saturday) in combination with
elevated afternoon winds (with gusts up to 30 mph) will lead to
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions on Friday and
Saturday for the higher terrain areas to the north and east of
Phoenix. Elevated wind gusts (25-30 mph) will continue on Sunday
afternoon for the higher terrain areas to the north and east of
Phoenix. However, a slight increase in moisture (minRHs of 15-20%)
and further cooling of temperatures (~5-8 degrees cooler than
Friday) will lower fire weather concerns.

The aforementioned Pacific trough will bring much welcomed cooler
temperatures to the region this weekend and continuing into the
first half of next week. Temperatures will cool to near normal on
Saturday and fall slightly below normal Sunday. These slightly below
normal temperatures will continue into next week. High temperatures
during this timeframe will fall into the lower 100s across the lower
deserts and into the 90s across the higher terrain. During this
timeframe high pressure will build across eastern CONUS and will
keep troughing over western CONUS through the middle of next week.
The main discrepancy between the global ensemble models continues to
be how quickly the trough will dissipate and move eastward.

Global ensemble members continue to show a battle between dry air
and more moist monsoon moisture over our CWA early next week. Models
have shifted this slightly to be more of a Tuesday-Wednesday
timeframe rather than Monday-Tuesday. The aforementioned Pacific
trough will work to keep dry air and southwesterly flow in place, at
least over SE CA and western AZ. But, some deep moisture over
northern Mexico looks to make its way into SE AZ. This moisture, in
combination with upper-level support, could lead to some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. This supports some low end chances for
showers and storms as far north as the White Mountains and into Gila
County.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Trends in winds will be the main weather issue through Friday
afternoon under clear skies. The typical westerly wind shift this
afternoon may incorporate several hours of 140v230 before completing
the transition, then obtaining periodic gusts 20-25kt late
afternoon/early evening. Confidence is good that timing of the
overnight return to easterly will be similar to early this morning,
however a more hasty return to west should occur late Friday
morning.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Periodic gusty winds will be the main weather concern through Friday
afternoon under clear skies. Confidence is good that winds will
become gusty through the afternoon and evening with 20-25kt
southerly gusts common at KBLH and westerly 25-30kt gusts developing
at KIPL around sunset. Speeds should relax overnight with directions
potentially become somewhat variable around sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will continue today with winds following
their typical diurnal patterns with some occasional afternoon
breeziness with gusts into the upper teens to low 20s. Temperatures
will remain above normal tomorrow with highs around 105-110 degrees
across the lower deserts. Continued dry conditions, with winds
increasing even more tomorrow and into this weekend. This will lead
to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across the
eastern district higher terrain tomorrow and Saturday. On Friday,
very dry conditions will persist (min RH`s 5-10%), with afternoon
winds gusting 20-25 mph. On Saturday, wind gusts will increase to 25-
30 mph but min RH`s will rise to around 10-15% as temperatures cool.
Elevated fire weather concerns will subside going into early next
week as winds weaken and temperatures continue to cool to around or
just below normal while also increasing MinRHs into the teens.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ534-537>544-
     546>556-559>562.

CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Young